Ufc 230 Betting Predictions
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On Saturday, November 3rd, the UFC will be live from the hallowed grounds of Madison Square Garden in New York City, for UFC 230: Cormier vs Lewis. This MMA event features 13 fights with UFC heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier putting his belt on the line in the main event against Derrick Lewis. The semi-main event will be a 185 lb. battle between Chris Weidman and Ronaldo Souza.
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UFC 230 has seen an unusual amount of shuffling fights around due to injuries, visa issues and new undisclosed reasons. As late as last week, the UFC was still tinkering with the event card due to issues with fighters. In total, there was at least 8 fights that have been changed, moved or cancelled from this event.
UFC 230: Cormier vs Lewis Betting Odds
A quick look at the betting odds for this event shows that many online betting sites view this card to have lopsided matchups. Out of the 13 scheduled fights, only two of them are close in odds. The biggest disparity in odds is the main event where Cormier is a massive favorite over Lewis. Let’s take a deeper dive into the matchups, make some predictions, and see where we can also make some money. All betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC 230 Preliminary Card: Fight Pass
The following preliminary fights can be seen on UFC’s Fight Pass beginning at 6:15 PM ET:
Matt Frevola (+355) vs Lando Vannata (-305)
Undefeated as an amateur, Frevola (6-1) got off to a fast start as a professional including a contract with the UFC after winning his DWTNCS fight. Unfortunately, his momentum was derailed in January after losing to Reyes via 1st Round KO. Fervola is looking to get back on track, but will have to attempt that by defeating Vannata (9-3-1) who is a big favorite in this fight.
Lando certainly hasn’t progressed to the level many fans and pundits thought he would get to after his first two UFC fights. He fared well against Tony Ferguson in his UFC debut fight and then had a sweet spinning wheel kick KO in his second fight. From there, he’s gone 0-2-1. However, all three of those fights have gone the distance. So, he’s not getting KO’d and such.
In this fight, I expect Vannata to be too much for Frevola to handle. Take Lando to win via Decision or a late round stoppage.
Shane Burgos (-300) vs Kurt Holobaugh (+250)
In this featherweight fight, Burgos (10-1) comes in as the favorite after winning 3 of his last 4 UFC fights. Unfortunately, he did lose his last fight in January, but that shouldn’t stop Shane from performing well in this contest. Burgos has shown a nice balance of striking and submission skills, which should bode well for him in this fight.
Holobaugh (17-5) won his DWTNCS fight, but eventually had it overturned by NSAC. He then lost his first UFC fight via KO in July. This is not a good matchup for Kurt as Burgos has the skills to attack him the same way Barcelos did in July.
Burgos looks to get back on track with a win at UFC 230 and I expect him to get it. I expect Burgos to land some big shots on Holobaugh before he finally stops the fight with a late 2nd Round TKO. I don’t see this fight making it into the 3rd Round.
Brian Kelleher (+123) vs Montel Jackson (-143)
Kelleher (19-9) is the more experienced fighter of the two, but Jackson (6-1) seems to have more upside in his career. The only question is whether or not Jackson’s potential and upside will lead him to victory over a tough opponent at UFC 230.
Brian Kelleher has gone 3-2 inside the octagon and had two solid wins over Stasiak and Barao before getting KO’d late in the 3rd Round against Lineker. With that said, I’ve been more impressed with Kelleher than Jackson so far.
Montel has the height and reach advantage in this fight, but he doesn’t have the experience and I’m not sure that he can handle the tenacity of Kelleher. Make no mistake about it, Brian will have to get inside and get Jackson on the mat to win this fight. So, it comes down to Jackson’s takedown and submission defense vs Kelleher’s striking defense.
There has to be a few upsets on this card, as I don’t remember the last time all of the betting favorites have won. With that said, I’m going with Kelleher to win this bout and pull off the mild upset. Let’s go with a 2nd Round submission for the win.
Adam Wieczorek (-240) vs M. Rogério de Lima (+205)
In the first of only two heavyweight fights on the night, Poland’s heavyweight prospect Adam Wieczorek will be in action. Adam (10-1) has won 9 straight fights and has gone 2-0 inside the octagon so far. He’s shown a nice balance of KO/TKO’s and Submissions in his career, and I expect him to keep that momentum going in this fight.
Lima (15-5-1) will be coming up in weight to compete in this bout. Lima is 4-3 inside the octagon, but has had some impressive performances especially in his first two fights where he won both via TKO/KO in less than 2 minutes of the first round for each fight.
Lima was set to take on Ruslan Magomedov, but he couldn’t fight due to visa issues. Adam stepped in on less than two weeks’ notice. I believe that actually favors Adam Wieczorek more because I believe he’s the better and the bigger fighter.
Lima has a poor takedown defense and an even worse ground game. Wieczorek should have no problem getting Lima down to the mat and smothering him until he finds his opening. Once that happens, you can expect a submission victory for Adam Wieczorek. Lima will be lucky to make it past the second round.
UFC 230 Preliminary Card: Fox Sports 1
The second portion of the preliminary card will feature fighters looking to make a great impression, so that they can get back onto the main card of an event. The following preliminary fights can be seen on Fox Sports 1 beginning at 8 PM ET:
Jason Knight (-255) vs Jordan Rinaldi (+215)
Despite losing his last 3 fights in a row, Knight (20-5) comes into this contest as a big favorite over Rinaldi (13-6). Knight should be the more desperate fighter of the two as a 4th straight loss could mean that Jason gets cut from the company. 3 years ago, Knight came into the UFC with a 16-1 record and a 9 fight win streak. Unfortunately, he’s gone 4-4 inside the octagon since then. His last two losses came via Decision.
Rinaldi is 1-2 inside the octagon and also needs a win. He suffered a TKO loss in the 1st Round back in January and looks to rebound from that tough defeat. 8 of Rinaldi’s 13 wins have come via submission and I expect him to try and work his way into another submission victory in this fight. Unfortunately, I don’t think he will be successful.
In my opinion, Knight is the better fighter of the two and he will show that on Saturday evening. I believe this fight has a good chance of going the distance. Combined, these two fighters have 15 Decision results out of 44 total pro fights. Both fighters have suffered the majority of their losses via Decision. So, it makes sense that this fight, which should be billed as a “loser leaves town” contest, will end up going the full 3 rounds.
With that said, I like Knight in this one. I believe he will get back on track and start regaining his form that saw him win 4 straight fights inside the octagon.
Sijara Eubanks (-510) vs Roxanne Modafferi (+395)
I don’t think there’s a fighter, not named Diaz, more frustrated with the UFC right now than Eubanks. Sarj was originally scheduled to fight at UFC 230 for a title, but was rescheduled to fight Modafferi after the UFC decided to move Shevchenko to UFC 231 for a flyweight title fight against Jedrzejczyk. To make matters worse, Eubanks goes from a potential main event or co-main event position, to the middle of the preliminary card. All of that frustration will be taken out on Modafferi inside the octagon.
Eubanks (3-2) already defeated Modafferi in the semifinal of the Ultimate Fighter 26. So, oddsmakers and MMA pundits believe that Sarj should walk right through Roxanne (22-14) who is coming off a win in July. However, Modafferi is 1-1 inside the octagon and that doesn’t include her fights on TUF.
Eubanks has some solid jiu-jitsu skills, but she has 2 pro wins via TKO/KO. However, she also has gone the distance in 3 of her 5 pro fights Modafferi has seen 23 of her pro fights go the distance, which she has gone 13-10 during those fights.
I believe that Sarj is the hungrier fighter of the two and she’s determined to stick it to the UFC for their rescheduling of her original title fight. I believe a victory here will earn Eubanks a title fight against the winner of the UFC 231 bout between Shevchenko and Jedrzejczyk.
I expect Eubanks to win this fight via Unanimous Decision unless she can catch Modafferi off guard in the middle portion of this bout.
Julio Arce (-370) vs Sheymon Moraes (+305)
Arce (15-2) is on a 7 fight win streak including going 2-0 inside the octagon. Arce got a solid win in June over Teymur via submission and hopes to continue this impressive win streak. Moraes (10-2) is 1-1 inside the octagon, but did win at UFC 227 via Unanimous Decision over Matt Sayles. Neither fighter has a real advantage in height, reach or weight. Additionally, both fighters come into this bout around the same age as well.
For Moraes, he’s either going to finish you via TKO/KO (5 wins) or go the distance and grind out the win (5 wins). His two losses have come via submission. Arce has 7 decision victories and 5 submission victories.
Julio has a solid ground game and striking game, which makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone in his weight class. It also seems like Arce never tires or slows down, which could pose problems for Moraes in this bout.
Between these two, I’m more impressed with what I saw in Arce’s fights than Moraes and I believe Arce is going to keep his win streak going at UFC 230. I expect Arce to grind out another Decision victory in this contest unless Moraes tires and leaves himself open for a submission. Either way, Arce makes it eight straight wins.
Lyman Good (-615) vs Ben Saunders (+465)
Lyman Good (19-4-1) was originally scheduled to fight Sultan Aliev, but the UFC added Ben Saunders (22-10-2) to this bout instead due to issues surrounding Aliev.
Good hasn’t fought since July 2017, but will return to his hometown of NYC to take on Saunders in a potential “fight of the night” candidate. Prior to his loss last July, Good had tallied 3 straight wins. Inside the octagon, Good is 1-1. Saunders has fought for the UFC since 2014 and has compiled a 6-4 record. However, he has gone 1-3 in his last 4 fights and could be shown the door if he doesn’t get a win on Saturday night.
This is a tough fight to predict considering that Good hasn’t fought in almost 16 months and Saunders is stepping in on short notice after having last fought on September 22nd. With that said, I feel that Lyman Good has the potential to move up in the division and should get the win at UFC 230.
Good has won 47% of his fights by TKO/KO and Saunders has 6 loss via TKO/KO. I expect both fighters to try and keep this fight standing as long as possible in order to score the win. I’m going with the hometown Good in this fight, but I do think Saunders offers decent betting value.
UFC 230 Main Card
This portion of the event features 1 heavyweight title fight and 4 middleweight fights. The main card for UFC 230 can be seen on PPV and is scheduled to begin at 10 PM ET:
Derek Brunson (+260) vs Israel Adesanya (-310)
Perhaps, no other fight on this card represents a greater clash of styles than the PPV opener of Brunson vs Adesanya.
Brunson (18-6) is a great wrestler who’s worked on improving his striking game. He frequently pushes the pace and puts pressure on his opponents. Unfortunately, he has lost 3 of his last 5 fights including a KO loss to Souza in January. Roughly a year ago, Brunson did KO Machida, which helped to restore his winning ways. However, he does need this win in order to move up the food chain and try to get in line for a title shot.
Speaking of title shots, some pundits feel that if Israel (14-0) can win this fight like he did against Tavares in July then he will be 1 fight away from a middleweight title fight. Adesanya had his first UFC fight in February 2018, and has gone 3-0 since then. This will be his 4th fight in 9 months and he’s on fire.
Adesanya is an elite level kickboxer with a scary arsenal of kicks and punches. His combinations have overwhelmed opponents at times like Wilkinson who he TKO’d in the 2nd Round via knees and punches. Israel has also shown that he can defend himself when being taken down to the mat. However, his advantage is clearly standing up.
For Brunson to have a chance, he’s going to have to keep the fight on the ground and use his wrestling advantage. However, I find it hard to believe that he won’t get tagged with a few shots when trying to dive in for a leg or two. I believe Adesanya’s kicks and strikes will keep Brunson off balanced, before landing the finishing shot. This fight might go into the 2nd Round, but I expect Brunson to make a mistake or two and suffer a loss because of it. I expect Israel to win via TKO in the 2nd.
Karl Roberson (-270) vs Jack Marshman (+230)
Both fighters come into UFC 230 looking for a big win. Marshman is the underdog, but I feel that the odds are bit high on this one. Roberson (6-1) hasn’t been that impressive where he deserves this much of a difference in the odds. He did have a nice KO on DWTNCS, but tapped out to tougher competition when he faced Farreira in May. With that said, Marshman could offer some nice betting value if you feel that he has a shot at winning.
Marshman (22-7) has won 8 of his last 10 fights, but hasn’t competed inside the octagon in a year. He lost via submission to Antonio Carlos Jr. at UFC Fight Night 119 last October. Marshman is giving up an inch in height and reach, but he has a lot more experience than Roberson and I think that could come into play on Saturday night.
Roberson (6-1) suffered his first professional loss against Ferreira in May, but still has pundits believing that he’s a rising middleweight prospect. Roberson could give Marshman problems with his athleticism and ranginess. He also might be the better striker between the two.
Despite all of the boxes that Roberson checks off, I feel that Marshman’s toughness and experience will give him an advantage in this fight. One that Roberson won’t be able to overcome. I’m going with Marshman to win this fight via TKO in the 3rd.
Dave Branch (-415) vs Jared Cannonier (+345)
This fight, and the co-main event, were impacted by Luke Rockhold having to pull out of UFC 230 with an injury. Rockhold was supposed to fight Weidman and Branch was supposed to fight Souza. Unfortunately for Branch, Souza got bumped to the co-main event and Dave is getting a newcomer to the division.
Jared Cannonier (10-4) is 1-3 over his last 4 fights, but they were in the light heavyweight division. Cannonier is now moving down to middleweight where he’s hoping to turn his career around. Jared is 4-3 since joining the UFC and needs a strong showing this weekend to justify the company keeping him around.
David Branch (22-4) is a top 10 middleweight and a big favorite in this fight. Unfortunately, since he’s expected by most to win this fight, Branch won’t really move up in the pecking order after a victory. However, if he loses, then Branch will fall out of the top 10. It’s really a “no win” fight for the former WSOF middleweight and light heavyweight champ.
I like Branch’s experience in this fight and I think he’s better suited for a run at the belt than Cannonier. If Jared can bring his “a-game” then this could be an entertaining fight. If Cannonier comes into this fight at anything less than his best then Branch will eat him alive.
As it stands, Branch is a big favorite for a reason and he’s the smart bet in this fight. The only question is whether or not Branch wins going via distance or finishing inside the distance.
Chris Weidman (-175) vs Ronaldo Souza (+150)
As mentioned, Weidman was originally scheduled to fight Rockhold and Souza was originally scheduled to fight Branch. After Rockhold pulled out, Souza was moved to the co-main event to take on Weidman in what should be a #1 contender’s fight for the middleweight title.
Weidman (14-3) will be the huge fan favorite in this one as the Long Island native fights in front of the Madisen Square Garden crowd. Weidman is a former UFC champ looking to get his title back. A win in this fight should put him next in line, but you never know with the UFC and their questionable match making. Weidman was passed up for a title shot as Gastelum got it instead. However, Weidman did defeat Gastelum in July of 2017. Yet, Gastelum went on to beat Bisping and Souza after that fight to get the title shot.
Souza’s (25-6, 1NC) Split Decision loss to Gastelum in May dropped him down the pecking order in the middleweight division. However, if he could get a big win over Weidman this weekend then he could make a case for a rematch against Gastelum especially if Kelvin ends up becoming the next middleweight champ.
For this fight, I believe Weidman’s striking skills will be the difference. He has excellent wrestling skills and top fight game, in addition to a solid takedown defense. These skills should bode well for him in this matchup. Souza is an elite jiu-jitsu fighter with solid striking skills, but Weidman has the advantage in this area.
The only real chance that Souza has in this fight is capitalizing on a Weidman mistake and locking in a submission. Other than that, Weidman should get the victory in what will most likely be Souza’s last chance at the upper echelon of the division.
Daniel Cormier (-750) vs Derrick Lewis (+550)
Cormier (21-1) is considered by many to be the top pound for pound fighter in MMA. He currently holds both the UFC light heavyweight and heavyweight titles. Cormier last fought in July when he KO’d Stipe Miocic in the 1st Round to win the belt. Up to that point, Miocic was the top heavyweight, winning 6 straight fights. After that fight, Brock Lesnar came into the cage and challenged Cormier to a heavyweight title fight. From there, the UFC booked the fight in early 2019. However, Cormier didn’t want to wait that long to fight again, so he agreed to a UFC 230 bout against Lewis.
What’s surprising is that Lewis agreed to this fight after a tough bout at UFC 229 where he won with 11 seconds left in the fight by knocking out Volkov. After the fight, Lewis (21-5) gave an incredible promo that instantly went viral. With only 4 weeks to prepare, Lewis is stepping back into the octagon to take on Cormier for the heavyweight belt.
Cormier proved that he has punching power in addition to being an excellent wrestler. But, Lewis is the one with the one shot KO power. And, that gives him a puncher’s chance in any fight. Derrick has won 9 of his last 10 fights with the only loss being a TKO to Mark Hunt 17 months ago.
Cormier is the biggest favorite of the night and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be. Cormier has an excellent ground game that will give Lewis problems if Derrick ends up on his back. In fact, Daniel should look for the takedown because he probably doesn’t want to exchange power punches with “The Black Beast.”
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Unfortunately, Lewis doesn’t have the cardio to hang with a fighter like Cormier for 5 rounds. So, there’s a good chance he gasses in the latter rounds and ends up getting TKO’d or Submitting.
Lewis is worth taking a flier on. He’s shown the ability to survive on the ground and he’s proven to only need one punch to turn the tide of a fight or finish an opponent. As much as I would like to see Lewis win this contest, it’s too hard to go against one of the best in the sport.
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Betting Value for UFC 230
Not only do I think Marshman is a solid upset pick in his fight against Roberson, I also think his +230 line offers great value. I believe this is too high for an experienced fighter like him.
Because Weidman has had a rough few outings over the last few years, his odds are a bit lower than what a fighter of his resume should be considering the matchup. I believe his -175 line actually provides value considering he could be a bigger favorite. In fact, I would be surprised if this line jumps to -200 or higher as we get closer to the event.
Ben Saunders (+465) is another decent value bet/flier due to Good having not stepped inside the octagon in 16+ months. Additionally, Saunders is a rugged opponent with the potential to win this fight.
Any Potential UFC 230 Upsets?
I believe there are a few potential upsets on this card. First, I think Brian Kelleher is a tough opponent for Montel Jackson in his 2nd UFC fight. I’m picking Kelleher (+123) to win this fight even though Jackson has potential to improve in his career. I like what I’ve seen from Kelleher in terms of his tenacity and grind.
Karl Roberson comes into his fight with some buzz and plenty of skills to win. However, there’s a growing sentiment that Marshman has enough grit and grind to pull off the upset. Count me in as one of those people who feel Marshman can get the win at UFC 230. With +230 odds, Marshman is definitely worthy of a flier.
I believe there is a small chance that Derrick Lewis can upset Cormier and this is mostly due to “The Black Beast’s” knock out power. All Lewis needs is one punch to swing the momentum to his side and finish a fight. That kind of punching power always gives him a chance. If he can avoid Cormier’s top position then I believe Lewis is worth taking a flier on.
UFC 230 Final Thoughts
The Black Beast is an entertaining fighter as he’s always looking to take someone’s head off and never shying away from a brawl. He convinced me of his punching power when he upset Volkov at UFC 229 with just 11 seconds left in the fight. I will be rooting for him to win, but Cormier should come away the winner. Daniel is an impressive fighter with an unmatched skillset and it will most likely be too much for Lewis to handle.
Overall, I believe UFC 230 can be deceptively entertaining. There aren’t many exciting bouts on paper and oddsmakers have significantly favored 11 of the 13 fights. With that said, there’s a chance we see a few upsets at UFC 230, which always adds entertainment value to a UFC event.
UFC 230 Betting Recap
- Lando Vannata (-305)
- Shane Burgos (-300)
- Brian Kelleher (+123)
- Adam Wieczorek (-240)
- Jason Knight (-255)
- Sijara Eubanks (-510)
- Julio Arce (-370)
- Lyman Good (-615)
- Israel Adesanya (-310)
- Jack Marshman (+230)
- Dave Branch (-415)
- Chris Weidman (-175)
- Daniel Cormier (-750)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship is back in Vegas, and UFC Odds are now available. Read on for our complete betting guide taking a first look at Leon Edwards versus Belal Muhammad in the UFC Fight Night main event, including updated odds and our free expert betting predictions.
Belal Muhammad vs. Leon Edwards
Saturday, March 13, 2021 – 10:05 PM EST at UFC Apex
Leon Edwards (18-3-0)
Number three ranked UFC welterweight Leon Edwards has been side-lined since 2019, and with an eight-fight win streak, the British bad-boy has been overly eager to get back into the octagon.
The last time Edwards fought, he won a unanimous decision over former titleholder Rafael Dos Anjos, but the near two-year absence has not been the fault of Britain's fastest rising UFC star. He was scheduled to face Tyron Woodley before the coronavirus caused the bout to be cancelled. Following the pandemic restrictions, Edwards has been planned on a further three occasions. Health issues put a stop to the highly-anticipated clash with Khamzat Chimaev.
Born in Jamaica but raised in Birmingham, United Kingdom, Edwards has trained in mixed martial arts since his teenage years and owns a diverse skill set. Without shining in one particular discipline, Edwards has utilised his full MMA background.
Edwards MMA Successes
- UFC Performance of the Night (One Time)
- A second-fastest knockout in welterweight history (00:08 seconds of the first round)
- Tied latest finish in a 3-round fight (4:59 of the third round)
- BAMMA RDX welterweight champion (One time with one defense)
Leon Edwards Best Available Odds:Edwards to Win at -250 with BookMaker (visit our BookMaker Review)
Ufc 230 Betting Predictions For Today
Belal Muhammad (18-3-0)
'Remember the Name' is a fitting nickname for Belal Muhammad because it's hard to forget an MMA athlete consistent in his division and on social media. Muhammad has fought on three occasions since we last saw Edwards in the cage; activity is certainly no problem for the rank 13th competitor. In fact, it has been a mere four weeks since we last saw Belal in the octagon. When interviewed by MMA Junkie in 2019, Belal explained what the fight game means to him:
'I am a Palestinian Muslim-American, born and raised in Chicago, Illinois. My family is originally from Al-Bireh, Palestine. I would consider myself to be very family-oriented with a lot of devotion and respect for the sport of MMA. My ultimate goal in my career is to take home the belt as the best welterweight champion in the world, inshallah.'
Accepting this contest (replacing Khamzat Chimaev) on short notice after competing last month is a true testament to Belal's mindset and self-belief, and we should expect the best version of Belal Muhammad next weekend.
Belal MMA Successes
- Performance of the Night (One Time)
- Fight of the Night (One Time)
- Titan FC Welterweight Champion (One Time)
Belal Muhammad Best Available Odds:Muhammad to Win at -215 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Edwards vs. Muhammad Early Prediction and Betting Advice
Stylistically, the fight presented to us involves two competitors with remarkably similar styles. Neither fighter excels in one area; both men possess the skills to grapple or strike. They also have an identical professional MMA record, and both men know what it takes to survive a full fifteen-minute fight.
BookMaker current odds are swaying heavily in favor of Edwards, but his time away from the octagon is worrying. Especially when faced with a veteran decision fighter in Belal.
Online Betting Ufc
Seeking the value here is tough, and although I belief Edwards can take another decision victory for his record here, the price isn't tempting at all.
Ufc 230 Betting Predictions Week 9
With a twenty-five-minute time limit and two athletes with a slow pace, we should expect this fight to sail over three and a half rounds. The odds are not currently available, so be sure to check back with SBR during the week when they'll be live.
UFC in Vegas 21 Betting Prediction:Over 3.5 rounds (pending odds) with BookMaker
Ufc 230 Betting Predictions Odds
UFC IN VEGAS 21 MAIN CARD ON ESPN & ESPN+
- Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad (UFC welterweight bout)
- Ryan Spann vs. Misha Cirkunov (UFC light heavyweight bout)
- Eryk Anders vs. Darren Stewart (UFC middleweight bout)
- Ben Rothwell vs. Philipe Lins (UFC heavyweight bout)
- Dan Ige vs. Gavin Tucker (UFC featherweight bout)